Infrastructure, Development, & the Next Chapter of Durham’s Growth

Over the past several years, development in Durham has not been the result of any one group or agenda. The push toward increased density has gone far beyond simply asking the city to allow more units on a lot. It has been a sustained effort rooted in analysis, advocacy, and, at times, agitation. Planners, developers, architects, housing advocates, and residents have all played a role. Progress required public support, careful evaluation of whether new rules would actually work, coordination with transit and commercial growth, and ongoing scrutiny of whether the city’s infrastructure could realistically support the direction Durham is heading.

That final piece is now coming into focus.

Recently, the City of Durham’s Public Works Department issued notice that it will be advancing the Goose Creek Outfall Improvement Project to “enhance sewer capacity to support both current needs and long-term growth in the area.” In connection with this effort, the city indicated it will not be issuing new sewer permits across a large portion of East Durham, generally north of NC-147, south of I-85, east of Roxboro Street, and west of I-885.

While the city has not yet released detailed timelines or implementation specifics, several implications are already emerging:

1. Near-term development in East Durham will likely be stifled.

Projects planning new construction may be unable to receive Certificates of Compliance for an estimated three to five years. This effectively pauses much of the small-scale infill and missing-middle development that had been gaining traction in the area.

2. Infrastructure skepticism gains ground.

Advocates for expanded housing options have long had to respond to concerns that Durham’s systems could not support increased density. This announcement gives added weight to those arguments, even though this is a public works constraint rather than a planning failure.

3. The rollout of the new UDO may feel secondary effects.

As the city works through sewer capacity, capital planning, and sequencing, there may be yet-to-be-seen impacts on planning guidance and on the broader timeline for future updates.

4. Growth around the Angier & Driver corridor may lose momentum.

This emerging pocket of East Durham has been evolving into a true downtown-adjacent node, with new restaurants, coffee shops, bookstores, and small businesses creating a walkable sense of place. It was widely expected to continue building over the next five to ten years through incremental residential and mixed-use development. A multi-year slowdown in new construction risks stalling that momentum, limiting both the rooftops and foot traffic that help neighborhood-scale commercial districts thrive.

5. Market pressure may shift west and central.

As the number of lots available for immediate construction declines, central and west Durham may see increased competition for buildable sites, with corresponding pressure on lot and home prices.

While more clarity should come in the weeks ahead, this effective moratorium arrived as a surprise even to many local developers. Moments like this highlight how intertwined infrastructure and development truly are. Staying informed, understanding second-order impacts, and navigating around them is essential, and a clear example of the value we focus on at BETTER: helping projects remain thoughtful, feasible, and aligned with the long-term health of the city.