Understanding Supply & Demand Dynamics in the Real Estate Market

1. Supply and Demand

At the most basic level, the most important thing in real estate investing is following the people—and Durham is attracting more of them, with rising incomes to match. Even with Durham making development easier than most jurisdictions, supply still can’t keep up with demand. There’s sustained, pent-up demand here, which lowers investment risk.

I wouldn’t invest in any city with fewer than 50,000 people—and honestly, fewer than 100,000 is questionable without a compelling reason. You need the stability of a real urban center. Durham’s population growth from 2010 to 2020 (as shown in census data) tells the story. There may be some noise from COVID, but the trend is strong.

Bottom line: demand is high, supply is constrained, and the fundamentals support long-term growth.

2. Affordability

We’re seeing a massive wealth shift from traditional high-cost markets like New York and California into secondary metros—and Durham is one of the key recipients.

A middle-class lifestyle is still achievable here. Homes cost a fraction of what they do in coastal metros, and yet the quality of life, job access, and urban environment are all competitive.

When you combine that with strong employment and livability, you get one of the few places in the U.S. where it’s still possible to be comfortably middle class without compromising.

That relative affordability also gives Durham plenty of runway for further appreciation as more capital flows in.

3. Universities and Employment Base

Durham (and the broader Triangle) isn’t reliant on one industry—which makes the region more resilient in downturns.

Between Duke, UNC, NC State, and a growing cluster of tech and biotech firms, the area has a diverse and stable employment base.

Even if one sector (like biotech) pulls back, the region would still be underpinned by its universities, healthcare systems, and research institutions.

It’s the opposite of what happened in cities like Detroit or Pittsburgh, where one industry collapse dragged down the whole city.

This diversity—similar to what helps a city like New York thrive—makes Durham a safe and sustainable place to invest.

4. Big Fish / Small Pond Dynamic

Durham is still a place where small, local builders can thrive—which is increasingly rare.

The laws are changing fast, and only a handful of us are deeply engaged, committed, and equipped to act on them.

We know maybe 15–20 builders doing this kind of work at a serious level. At our monthly meetups, we’re one of just 6 or 7 who show up consistently.

The city is actively creating space for local operators to succeed. They don’t want a Lennar-type developer to dominate, even though they’ll approve those projects when needed.

The new zoning rules are designed to level the playing field—not hand everything to national builders.

Durham wants walkable, incremental, infill-style growth—not mass sprawl like Cary, which is now trying to reverse-engineer a real downtown.

Right now, it’s still possible to be a big fish in a small pond—and that pond is growing.